Gartner tech ‘hype cycles’ 2004

Caught an interesting story on BBC News that reports on recent analysis by IT industry analysts Gartner with predictions on which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future.

The BBC report discusses in general terms where Gartner think consumer technologies are heading. Here’s a visual look:

BBC NEWS | Technology | Peering beyond the technology hype

Gartner publishes a wide range of analysis on what they call technology ‘hype cycles’ that provide a snapshot of emerging and maturing technologies in 20 IT domains.

Their analysis on Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2004, pubished on 30 July, includes some interesting predictions.

Keep the consumer hype cycle graphic, above, in mind and look at Gartner’s emerging technologies predictions. No surprise to see that wikis are in the ‘On the Rise’ quadrant. I’ve marked in red the three that did surprise me somewhat in where Gartner sees them in the hype cycle – semantic web, RSS and XBRL (extensible business reporting language):

On the Rise
– Protein-DNA Logic
– Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition
– Molecular Transistors
– Truth Verification
– RFID (Item)
– Trusted Computing Group
– Augmented Reality
– Information Extraction
– Wikis
– Social Network Analysis

At the Peak
– Electronic Ink/Digital Paper
– Micro Fuel Cells
– Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices
– Inkjet Processes
– External MPP Grids
– Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users
– Semantic Web
– 802.16d WiMAX
– Unified Communications
– UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia

Sliding Into the Trough
– LEPs/OLEDs
– Service-Oriented Architecture
– Really Simple Syndication
– Web-Services-Enabled Business Models
– Mesh Networks — Sensor
– Mesh Networks — Wide Area
– RFID (Case/Pallet)
– Smartphone
– Tablet PC
– XBRL
– Wi-Fi Hot Spots

Climbing the Slope
– Location “Aware” Services
– VoIP
– Internal MPP Grids

Entering the Plateau
– Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center
– Instant Messaging
– Internal Web Services

Gartner | Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004 summary. (22-page report, $495 to buy. Registered Gartner clients.)